The Tale of Two Campaign Strategies

It is now clear what the campaign styles are going to be with Governor Romney and President Obama.  I decided I would write about this because a lot of impatient Republicans are getting anxious and demanding that Romney goes on the attack in a way that John McCain never did.  However, if you understand the strategy as I think I do (though I could be completely wrong), you’ll have a great appreciation for what the Romney camp is doing.

First, I wanted to discuss the Obama campaign strategy, which is very much like Obama’s presidency: spend, spend, spend and talk, talk, talk.  The Obama campaign knew all along that their only way of winning was to flood media with negative ads on whomever the competition would be.  It is not a coincidence that Obama spent the last 3.5 years raising money for his re-election.  Already, the Obama campaign is spending millions of dollars trying to define Romney early, much like Bush did against Kerry.  There are three main problems with this portion of their strategy:

• Money is not coming in as fast as Obama would like; Romney actually raised more money than Obama the past two months and Romney has a lot of Super PAC money backing him too.
• The number of battleground states are growing, increasing the need for money.  At this point in the election, the Obama campaign would hope that the race would be narrowing, now opening up.
• The Obama campaign has outspent the Romney campaign by leaps and bounds and yet, the polls reflect a tie right now.  If you’re going to try to start the race fast and hold on to the lead, you need to have a lead to hold onto.

The second piece of the Obama campaign strategy is to get Obama out talking to as many folks as possible.  The one thing Obama has going for him is that his likeability numbers are pretty good, so they want to get him out there to shake hands and kiss babies.  You’ll see a lot of talks so that he can get 30 second clips in the media with him rallying crowds.  The main problem with this is that people have seen Obama talk a million times and each time, it loses its luster and coverage.

Now, onto the Romney strategy.  Imagine if you will a slingshot; at first it would appear that the projectile is going backwards as it slowly gets pulled back, but then in an instance, it is catapulted forward.  Romney runs his campaign very similar.  Do you remember the primaries?  Romney wasn’t aggressive, played it pretty safe, and did not make any big mistakes.  After Newt Gingrich got in the lead and threatened Romney, the Romney campaign (and its supporting Super PACs) overwhelmed the Gingrich campaign with a shock and awe styled campaign and took Gingrich out of the race quickly.  I would look for Romney to hold onto their money until it really matters and then go wild.  In the primaries, he showed he can go after people in the debates, can be just as dirty as the Obama campaign is right now, and he knows when to turn it on.

There are three good reasons why I believe Mitt Romney should not get overly aggressive (as many Republicans are suggesting) at this point in the election:

• In the summer, most people (besides me) are not hanging on every word that is said in the Presidential election and are probably sick of all the Obama ads already.  They are waiting for the initial noise to stop and the presidential candidates to offer real solutions and policy.
• The items that the Obama campaign is going after are small potatoes.  They talk about how he carried his dog on vacation, how he may have picked on a kid over 30 years ago, how his company may have outsourced some jobs overseas over ten years ago, and the list goes on.  These are not the issues that are make or break issues for president.  Although it can help paint a narrative, a well timed response in a debate or speech can offset millions of advertisements in an instance.
• The traditional role of the vice presidential candidate is that of the attack dog.  Usually, the vice presidential candidate is the one that goes after the other presidential candidate and Romney has not picked his VP yet, although it is coming soon.  Allow Romney the time to pick his VP and then let his VP go to town on Obama, without hurting Romney’s likeability ratings.

Romney has a lot of money in his campaign war chest and is using it conservatively.  I would imagine they have plenty of ads ready to go to convince independents to go Republican.  Statistics show that the majority of undecideds at this point will go for the challenger because they know enough about the incumbent, that if they aren’t behind Obama now, there is not much he could possibly do to swing their vote. So relax, the statistics thus give the edge to Romney when the polls are tied and Republicans are in a good position to win!